Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 13.170399 15.343907 17.711741 20.476022 23.607380 27.037158 31.070587
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 9.365488 12.226689 15.650891 20.019413 25.409809 31.806391 39.930724
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 7.228581 10.419266 14.557960 20.244549 27.768121 37.284767 50.120691
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 5.613976 8.851691 13.364734 19.981441 29.274767 41.678560 59.261398
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 4.811493 8.195394 13.209635 20.970192 32.417540 48.373150 71.904104
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 4.058655 7.436395 12.735773 21.356251 34.649055 53.908638 83.323079
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 3.404220 6.689924 12.132245 21.407188 36.306822 58.670158 93.919503
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.885110 6.061830 11.600174 21.456949 37.898499 63.380979 104.704512
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.699901 5.995071 11.985961 23.028596 42.011041 72.189252 122.233052
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.455411 5.765353 12.041216 24.017916 45.222919 79.778770 138.332075
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.235092 5.539776 12.063496 24.930756 48.354278 87.417111 154.945667
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.931435 5.077976 11.566039 24.822131 49.673636 92.135234 167.088881
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.582888 4.454073 10.675658 23.902108 49.524263 94.491845 175.710346
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.306933 3.937257 9.925020 23.159948 49.627263 97.291492 185.287385
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.143816 3.661413 9.646652 23.331744 51.459320 103.241590 200.634368
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.971572 3.318783 9.161366 23.002793 52.272114 107.392975 213.058201
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.908404 3.262885 9.333491 24.107313 56.023370 117.156096 236.016053
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.815554 3.097336 9.212668 24.538217 58.420787 124.514041 254.980148
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.716352 2.886386 8.943600 24.593872 60.030468 130.460087 271.653230
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.630273 2.693778 8.689395 24.649315 61.633162 136.474210 288.752664
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.620227 2.756223 9.127849 26.420794 67.097534 150.370770 321.423356
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.585087 2.721764 9.293692 27.534985 71.187344 161.746577 349.794850
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.549306 2.675930 9.420429 28.562463 75.155352 173.084380 378.609033